How Correct Score Predictions Work (And How to Use Them)

Correct score is the hardest market in football betting: even the most likely scoreline in a match usually has only a 10–15% chance. That is why the odds are 6.00 and higher.

How we predict the score

We estimate how many goals each team is expected to score using their recent form and the bookmakers' prices, then use a Poisson model to give every scoreline a probability. The highest one is our pick, and we show two alternatives.

Staking tips

• Use small stakes – correct score is a long-shot market
• Cover two or three scorelines for the same match
• Avoid adding correct scores to big accumulators